Could 4+4 Make 1 in Libya? UN-Backed Agreement Looks to Unite Rival Camps

The recent signing of the UN-backed 4+4 agreement in Tripoli marks a significant development in Libya’s ongoing struggle for unity and stability. After 15 years of civil war, this landmark agreement aims to bring together rival factions and pave the way for national elections within two years.

Decades of division have taken their toll on Libya, leaving the country plagued by deep mistrust, shifting alliances, and entrenched armed factions. The involvement of major powers such as the United States has intensified efforts to broker a unification deal. White House adviser Massad Boulos proposed an initiative offering US energy investments in Libya’s oil fields in exchange for a unified executive.

The 4+4 agreement attempts to resolve recurring legal and institutional disputes that have crippled the nation since 2011. It balances power between east and west, with eight members representing both sides of the divide. The agreement mandates presidential and parliamentary elections within 24 months under a single executive authority.

Libya’s history suggests that this fragile balance may not hold. Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, the country has been in a near-perpetual state of instability. Initially, there was hope for democratic momentum, but divisions arose between factions controlling the east and west.

Today, Libya is home to multiple rival authorities operating across its territory. Tripoli is controlled by the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA), while Tobruk and Benghazi are controlled by the House of Representatives and the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar. Despite a 2020 ceasefire, political reunification has remained elusive due to failed international initiatives and systemic economic competition.

Regional dynamics have shifted, with Turkiye expanding military and technical cooperation with Saddam Haftar and eastern authorities. Joint military drills between eastern and western forces in Sirte under US supervision further illustrate this evolving landscape. The involvement of major powers is a key factor in this new agreement.

The 4+4 agreement represents a significant step forward, but its success is far from guaranteed. As the international community watches with bated breath, one thing is clear: the path to unity and stability in Libya will be fraught with challenges. However, there’s a glimmer of hope on the horizon – a fragile balance of power that could potentially pave the way for a unified government.

For those living in Tripoli, Tobruk, Benghazi, or other cities across the country, the 4+4 agreement represents a glimmer of hope that their lives might soon return to some semblance of normalcy. After 15 years of civil war, they’re tired of living under the constant threat of violence and instability.

In the coming months and years, it will be crucial for Libya’s leaders to work towards implementing this agreement in good faith. The international community must also remain engaged, providing support and guidance as needed. And for the Libyan people, there’s a growing expectation that their voices will finally be heard in the electoral process.