The Asian Allies’ Anxiety Index

The recent meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the foreign ministers of Japan and South Korea in New York is a telling sign of the anxious times we live in, especially when it comes to the delicate balance of power in East Asia. As the world waits for the upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, it’s clear that the US allies are bracing themselves for the worst.

The concerns aren’t entirely unfounded. With trade tensions between the US and China running at an all-time high, there’s a palpable sense of unease among Japanese and South Korean officials who fear their interests may be sacrificed in Sino-US diplomacy. The specter of concessions to Beijing hangs over the summit like a dark cloud, with many analysts predicting that Trump may offer significant trade sweeteners in exchange for economic gains.

The fraught history between Japan and South Korea is also a contributing factor. The two countries have been at odds over historical issues, particularly wartime atrocities committed by Japan, which has created a toxic atmosphere making cooperation on trade and security issues increasingly difficult. This tension is evident in the investment package negotiated by Seoul and Washington last year, touted as a major boost for the US economy but also raising concerns among South Korean opposition lawmakers about disproportionate financial risks.

Rubio’s meeting with his counterparts from Japan and South Korea takes on added significance in this context. It presents an opportunity for the US allies to press their concerns and secure guarantees that their interests won’t be compromised, despite the risks of being overshadowed by the main event of the Trump-Xi summit.

The meeting highlights the deep-seated anxiety among US allies about the impact of Sino-US diplomacy on their own economic and security interests. With Trump’s mercurial nature and penchant for unpredictability, it’s hard to know what he’ll do next. Will he cave in to Chinese pressure or stand firm on his trade demands? The stakes are higher than ever before as the drama unfolds at the UN General Assembly and the White House.

The question now is: what will be the cost of this diplomatic dance? Will Trump manage to secure concessions from Beijing without sacrificing too much, or will he sacrifice his allies’ interests in pursuit of a Pyrrhic victory? The outcome remains uncertain.