Ukraine is at a critical juncture, but relying on NATO-style guarantees may not provide sufficient protection against Russia's increasingly sophisticated attacks. Rather than simply offering words of reassurance, the international community needs to commit to concrete measures that can be triggered automatically in response to certain actions by Russia.
Article 5 of the NATO Charter provides for collective action in the event of an attack on a member state, but its application has been put to the test in recent months. With drones launched from outside Ukrainian territory, one-night incursions over allied infrastructure, and cable cuts by vessels, it's clear that traditional notions of "armed attack" no longer apply.
Rather than relying on Article 5, which requires consultation and decision-making among allies, Ukraine needs a guarantee that triggers action automatically in response to certain actions by Russia. This would include automatic sanctions, military responses, and support for Ukrainian countermeasures.
Moreover, the absence of visible presence and readiness is a major concern. Without a standing air bridge into Ukraine or a network of logistics hubs, Ukraine cannot rely on immediate reinforcements if it comes under attack. The same applies to intelligence sharing โ slow attribution and lack of real-time data can leave Ukraine and its allies vulnerable to Russian misinformation.
The solution lies in a comprehensive package that includes automatic triggers, a joint aerial and maritime shield, visible presence and readiness, intelligence compact, and production deal. This would not be a carbon copy of Article 5 but rather a tailored approach that addresses the unique threats faced by Ukraine today.
In essence, Ukraine needs a guarantee that works in the world as it is, not the world at it was. The current focus on NATO-style guarantees may only lead to empty promises and ineffective responses. It's time for the international community to take concrete action and provide Ukraine with the support it needs to defend itself against Russian aggression.
Article 5 of the NATO Charter provides for collective action in the event of an attack on a member state, but its application has been put to the test in recent months. With drones launched from outside Ukrainian territory, one-night incursions over allied infrastructure, and cable cuts by vessels, it's clear that traditional notions of "armed attack" no longer apply.
Rather than relying on Article 5, which requires consultation and decision-making among allies, Ukraine needs a guarantee that triggers action automatically in response to certain actions by Russia. This would include automatic sanctions, military responses, and support for Ukrainian countermeasures.
Moreover, the absence of visible presence and readiness is a major concern. Without a standing air bridge into Ukraine or a network of logistics hubs, Ukraine cannot rely on immediate reinforcements if it comes under attack. The same applies to intelligence sharing โ slow attribution and lack of real-time data can leave Ukraine and its allies vulnerable to Russian misinformation.
The solution lies in a comprehensive package that includes automatic triggers, a joint aerial and maritime shield, visible presence and readiness, intelligence compact, and production deal. This would not be a carbon copy of Article 5 but rather a tailored approach that addresses the unique threats faced by Ukraine today.
In essence, Ukraine needs a guarantee that works in the world as it is, not the world at it was. The current focus on NATO-style guarantees may only lead to empty promises and ineffective responses. It's time for the international community to take concrete action and provide Ukraine with the support it needs to defend itself against Russian aggression.