The Love Bites Back: Iran’s Unlikely Outreach to Jordan

Iran’s sudden shift in approach towards Jordan has gone largely unnoticed. In late July, Iranian missile strikes killed three American service members stationed in Jordan, prompting a series of messages on social media that seem more like a Valentine’s Day declaration than a warning.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared their “love” for the Jordanian people on Fars News Agency, citing a deep understanding of their suffering and injustice. They also thanked unnamed Jordanians for providing targeting information for the strikes – a peculiar gesture that raises more questions than answers.

Iran’s new approach appears to be an attempt to drive a wedge between Jordan and the United States. Tehran has long sought to undermine US influence in the region, but this strategy is particularly audacious given the close security ties between the two countries. By targeting American interests, Iran may be trying to create a power vacuum that they can exploit.

Iranian leaders perceive an opportunity to capitalize on existing tensions between Jordan’s government and its people. With their growing confidence in their regional position since the start of the war with the United States and Israel, Tehran sees a chance to spread its influence through proxies and propaganda.

Jordan is a country torn apart by competing loyalties and interests. Its government relies heavily on US protection and patronage, while its population is largely sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. This dichotomy has led to periodic street protests and calls for the expulsion of American troops.

Iran’s efforts to exploit this fissure are not new. By couching their messages in terms of solidarity with the Palestinian cause, Iran hopes to create a sense of shared purpose with Jordanian citizens who feel increasingly alienated from their government. However, recent polling suggests that Arab countries are increasingly wary of Iran’s influence in the region.

Any sympathy gained during the initial phase of the war has evaporated with Tehran’s recent bout of air strikes on Arab countries. Jordanian officials have taken a firm line against “Iranian aggression,” and many in the media have echoed this sentiment.

In reality, the real beneficiary of this situation is Israel. By maintaining a strong presence in the region and fostering close ties with US allies like Jordan, Tel Aviv has effectively neutralized any potential threat from Tehran.

Israel’s gradual annexation of the West Bank – a development that raises deep concerns for Jordan about a flood of Palestinian refugees – may prove to be the ultimate game-changer. If Iran is seeking to exploit existing tensions in Jordan, they are doing so at the very moment when Israel’s actions are pushing Jordan towards an even more precarious position.

The United States cannot afford to underestimate Iran’s intentions. While Tehran’s outreach to Jordan may be seen as a clever tactic, it also reflects a deeper calculation about the region’s power dynamics. In recent years, Iran has demonstrated its willingness to defend its position through missile strikes on seven different Arab countries that host US bases.

This new approach – one that combines bombast with flattery – is a reminder that Tehran will stop at nothing to assert its influence in the region. As we look to the future of US-Iran relations, it’s clear that both sides are locked in a delicate dance of power and persuasion.

While Iran may be trying to woo Jordan, they are also seeking to undermine US influence in the region – a strategy that will only continue to escalate tensions between Washington and Tehran. In the end, the love bites back, but it may not be enough to save Iran from its own contradictions.