The Goal-Setting Fallacy: Why Public Proclamations Won’t Save You

In September 2022, Wong Yu Liang, founder and CEO of Discovery, announced his ambitious goal to run a 5-minute mile on LinkedIn. He enlisted the help of a coach and encouraged followers to set their own stretch goals, touting this experiment as an illustration of the power of setting and declaring goals.

However, behavioral science has long acknowledged that goal-setting is not straightforward. Expected utility theory, which dominated decision theory for decades, assumed a linear relationship between potential gains and losses. But prospect theory, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979, revealed that losses loom larger than gains – loss aversion.

Wong’s experiment relies on the idea that setting and declaring bold goals triggers motivation and decisive action due to the psychological force of avoiding loss. By publicly announcing his goal, he created something to lose: his credibility and public accountability to his followers. But did this really work?

Data from Vitality, a business model pioneered by Discovery, shows that physical activity has positive knock-on effects for other healthy behaviors and mental wellbeing. However, Wong’s personal experience reveals a more nuanced picture. He began with a health check and baseline fitness assessment, which gave him a cardiovascular fitness VO2 max result of 47.7 – well above the “excellent” classification.

Despite his promising start, Wong got impatient after six weeks into his training and pushed himself harder than his coach had suggested. This decision led to a calf muscle tear, forcing him to abandon his goal. The question remains: did Wong’s public proclamation actually motivate him to achieve his goal?

Behavioral science suggests that the pain of loss can outweigh the pleasure of gain. In this case, Wong’s failure to achieve his goal may have been due more to his own hubris than any inherent flaw in the goal-setting process itself. The experiment highlights the importance of acknowledging the complexities of human motivation and the limitations of public proclamations.

Wong’s story also raises questions about the role of accountability in achieving goals. While publicly announcing one’s intentions can create a sense of obligation, it may not be enough to overcome personal limitations or unforeseen setbacks. The data from Vitality shows that moving from no exercise to just one physically active day per week reduces the risk of death by 36%. But what about those who fail to meet their goals despite their best efforts?

The goal-setting fallacy lies in assuming that public proclamations can save us from our own limitations. Instead, we should focus on understanding the complexities of human motivation and developing more nuanced approaches to goal-achievement. By acknowledging the potential for failure and the importance of self-awareness, we may find that setting and declaring goals is less about avoiding loss and more about cultivating a growth mindset.

Ultimately, Wong’s experiment serves as a reminder that even with the best intentions and public proclamations, achieving a 5-minute mile remains an elusive goal. As he himself admits, “it was a completely mad idea.”