The Mecca Pact’s First Test: Diplomacy Over War in Yemen

The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have raised the stakes for the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye. This key regional security agreement represents a significant shift in the region’s defence architecture.

Traditionally, the US has been the main security partner of Gulf states, but its intention to withdraw from direct military involvement has left regional countries scrambling to find new defence arrangements. The Mecca Pact is one response to this challenge.

The pact requires an unprovoked aggression against Saudi Arabia or a spillover of the Yemen conflict into the kingdom to make it operational. Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif noted that clarity around the pact’s mechanisms and rules of engagement is still lacking, however.

Unlike NATO’s Article 5, which mandates mutual assistance from allies in the event of an attack, the Mecca Pact is still in its infancy. While it has a joint secretariat and a framework for consultation, its organisational structure and institutional rules remain to be formally developed.

The question remains: what would trigger direct military intervention under the pact? Would it require a Saudi request or could Pakistan and Turkiye unilaterally decide to intervene? The answers are unclear at this time.

Diplomatic efforts are already underway to address regional tensions. Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud have engaged with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while Islamabad has publicly urged Iran to rein in the Houthis from attacking Saudi Arabia.

Given the complexities of regional politics, diplomacy will likely remain the preferred course of action for now. Pakistan is wary of direct military involvement due to its own historical experiences in Afghanistan and would need to build domestic consensus for any such operation.

The risks of spillover into Pakistan’s western border provinces’ economy, security, and societal harmony are significant. In all likelihood, the Mecca Pact will not be operationalised through a sudden or dramatic military intervention.

Instead, it will likely play out in a series of incremental steps: increased joint diplomatic pressure on Iran to restrain the Houthis, augmented support for Saudi defence, and a push for a multinational naval coalition to secure the Bab al-Mandeb.

This restraint-based approach would keep the essence of the Mecca Pact intact while putting more weight behind regional de-escalation. The pact’s success will ultimately depend on its ability to navigate the complex web of regional politics and interests.

Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan noted that the pact would work similarly to NATO, with member states actively requesting and defining the specific type of help they need in the event of an attack. However, Fidan also highlighted the need for clear communication and consultation between member states.

The Mecca Pact’s first test will be its ability to adapt to the nuances of regional politics and interests. Will it provide a framework for collective defence and deterrence or remain a paper tiger? Only time will tell.