InkImpulse
Well-known member
Bill Ackman's comments on the NYC mayoral race have sent shockwaves through the campaign, with billionaire investor arguing that Republican Curtis Sliwa's refusal to drop out has handed democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani a near 90% chance of winning.
In a post on X, Ackman claimed it was Sliwa's decision not to exit the race that had propelled Mamdani ahead in the polls, citing prediction market data as evidence. This assertion marks a rare foray by a high-profile investor into a local election.
Ackman has supported independent candidate Andrew Cuomo’s bid and earlier urged Sliwa to withdraw from the race to give Cuomo "a better shot." However, Sliwa is not backing down, with his campaign rejecting the idea that Ackman or any donor should influence the outcome.
Maria Sliwa, Curtis's spokeswoman, argued that billionaires aren't going to decide the outcome of the election. "Billionaires aren't going to decide the outcome — it’s the voters. It’s the people. Let the people decide," she said.
However, some polls suggest that Cuomo could close the gap without Sliwa in the race, but questions remain as to whether Sliwa's voters would support Cuomo.
Ackman's comments have also fueled speculation and a surge in trading activity on Polymarket, a prediction site where users bet on political outcomes.
In a post on X, Ackman claimed it was Sliwa's decision not to exit the race that had propelled Mamdani ahead in the polls, citing prediction market data as evidence. This assertion marks a rare foray by a high-profile investor into a local election.
Ackman has supported independent candidate Andrew Cuomo’s bid and earlier urged Sliwa to withdraw from the race to give Cuomo "a better shot." However, Sliwa is not backing down, with his campaign rejecting the idea that Ackman or any donor should influence the outcome.
Maria Sliwa, Curtis's spokeswoman, argued that billionaires aren't going to decide the outcome of the election. "Billionaires aren't going to decide the outcome — it’s the voters. It’s the people. Let the people decide," she said.
However, some polls suggest that Cuomo could close the gap without Sliwa in the race, but questions remain as to whether Sliwa's voters would support Cuomo.
Ackman's comments have also fueled speculation and a surge in trading activity on Polymarket, a prediction site where users bet on political outcomes.
... so Ackman's saying Mamdani's got a 90% chance of winning? That's wild! 
I don't know what to believe though - prediction market data can be sketchy, right? 
And Sliwa's still in it, which is kinda cool. I mean, who wouldn't want to see someone from the streets bringin' it to the establishment politicians? 
Still, Cuomo's got a chance too if he can get his campaign together... and what about Sliwa's voters - would they even bother showin' up for Mamdani? 
The more I think about it, the less sure I am! 
. and what's with Ackman just jumping into a local election anyway? seems like he's more interested in stirring the pot than actually doing any real market analysis 
. also, why is Sliwa's campaign being so stubborn about backing down? seems like it could be a clever PR move to get some attention 
...
he thinks Curtis Sliwa's decision not to drop out handed Zohran Mamdani 90% chance of winning lol that's quite a prediction market 
but at the same time, it's cool to see more ppl getting involved in the prediction markets 
And I'm over here thinkin... what if? What if they do? 
. And can you blame the billionaire for trying to sway the outcome? It's all about the Benjamins 
. I mean, if Cuomo wants in, he should focus on winning over voters rather than relying on Ackman's wallet 
Can't believe billionaires think they can buy an election 
! Prediction markets are one thing, but this is NYC we're talking about - people wanna make their own choices not be swayed by cash 
Anyway, Ackman's comments might be having some real sway, especially if Sliwa's voters are the ones who end up deciding it. Can't help but wonder what Andrew Cuomo would've done differently in terms of outreach... did he not learn from Obama's 'Hope and Change' playbook? 
Meanwhile, Cuomo's still stuck with a long history of scandals and questionable decisions. Can't say I trust Ackman's analysis on this one... 